Many cautiously optimistic despite feeling the impact of troubled times

West Side merchants have stocked their shelves and display cases with an array of gift items and Christmas-related decorations and accessories, trying to gauge both the economy and the wish lists of local shoppers during the holiday shopping season.

Many have to look into their crystal balls months in advance, often placing orders in the spring to stock for the holiday season - basing plans on their past experience and their best guess as to what the ailing economy would bring.

“Sales from the Christmas season are critical to the year,” said Rite Aid store manager Mark Fahey. While not the only factor to a successful business year, it is the season when the store’s inventory increases 10 to 20 percent overall, with a four-and-a-half week window for sales.

The Newman store carries an extensive line of holiday items from toys and gifts to all the trimmings for decorating, wrapping and celebrating. “It is the most stressful time from a store manager’s viewpoint,” Fahey described. “You go to bed thinking about the buy and wake up even more concerned.”

Early sales are fine and the season is promising, Fahey said, but the coming weeks are critical. “It’s definitely a ‘wait and see how it all unfolds’ time of year,” Fahey concluded.

Jewelry is a traditional gift selection of many holiday shoppers.

“In the retail business, the fourth quarter is always the biggest quarter of the year,” stated Bob Novoa. He and his wife Patty have owned and operated Novoa’s Jewelers in Newman for 35 years. Businesses such as theirs rely on holiday sales and the gift-giving season, he said. The holidays are a time when people make an extra effort to buy something special for their loved ones, Novoa reflected.

Aaron Cruz Valadez, store manager of Valadez Jewelers in Newman, agreed that December is traditionally the biggest month for the industry.

“Even though the economy is down, I am still hopeful that we will have a good December,” Valadez said, although he anticipates that some loyal customers may scale back on spending.

Holidays throughout the year are important to those in the floral industry - and the Christmas season is no exception.

Lee’s Floral and Gifts in Gustine is stocking poinsettias, centerpieces and gift baskets with an emphasis on variety rather than volume. “Mass quantities don’t work well in small towns,” owner Pam Chavez noted, “nobody wants to buy something everyone else in town already has so I try to carry just a few of the same giftware items and have some that are one-of-a-kind.”

She voiced uncertainty about what this holiday season would bring. “I have no clue how this year will be, we’re in uncharted waters this year,” she cautioned. “It’s tricky. You have to anticipate and keep a nice inventory all the time.”

At Y-Not Newman Floral, clerk Alice Duarte said the economy has slowed sales on all businesses - and when that happens luxury items such as flowers are the first cut from many budgets. Thanksgiving sales were down, Duarte noted, but the shop is stocking gift items for all cost ranges and is optimistic that activity will rebound during the traditional gift-buying season.

Seasonal merchandise sold at local hardware stores and pharmacies plays an important role in the overall business of the stores.

Holiday sales of gifts and decorations account for a significant percentage of all sales in the months of November and December for Ace Hardware in Newman, according to assistant manager Kathy Harris.

The store started seeing the affects of the slowing economy in last year’s sales, which led to adjustments in this year’s inventory of holiday supplies.

“People are not spending as much as they used to,” Harris noted.

Ben Parolini, store manager and owner of Pioneer Drug in Gustine, echoed that thought.

The pharmacy is the base of his business but the margin made from the relatively small store helps compensate for cutbacks being made presently in MediCal and MediCare for the pharmaceutical business. He said the seasonal aisle and gift ware are a small niche within the business but important sales nonetheless. “Everybody is pinching, we definitely feel it when the economy is bad,” Parolini reflected.

At Pioneer Drug in Newman, owner and manager Ralph Klopping anticipates slower business in both the pharmacy and the gift items. Fewer customers visiting the store for prescriptions or over-the-counter medications - which Klopping is seeing as a result of the economy - translates into slower gift sales as well, he noted.

Other businesses are finding themselves in a growing market niche.

The Fountain Dollar Store and More in Gustine is seeing an increase in business in the early going of the Christmas shopping season. Store owner Nikki Crowe said she is finding more people coming in for small gifts, kids items and food items. Wrapping and gift bags and her newest product, customized candy wrappers, are also drawing local shoppers. “More and more people are telling me they are not leaving town to shop,” Crowe noted.