Officials believe housing market, economy taking a toll

NEWMAN – School officials in the Newman-Crows Landing district are keeping a watchful and worried eye on a downward enrollment trend which suggests that a sagging economy and crisis in the housing market are being reflected by the number of students leaving the district.

That trend would represent a reversal of fortune for Newman-Crows Landing, which had continued to see student counts climb even as many districts in the area were faced with declining enrollments and the budget challenges that situation poses.

“We were still gaining kids last spring,” said Assistant Superintendent Rick Hennes. “There is no indication that is going to be the case this spring. What we have seen is a slow decline that has been averaging four or five kids a week. We have not seen that historically in the last couple of years.”

A month-to-month district enrollment count shows that the district has gone from having 2,735 students on its rolls in early September to 2,653 students as of Monday – a decrease of 82 students.

School funding is based largely on the average daily attendance, so enrollment declines translate into shrinking revenue scenarios.

Even with the decreases, school officials said, the average daily attendance remains slightly ahead of the conservative estimates on which the budget is based. Funding for each school year is based on the previous year’s attendance, so there is a delayed impact from enrollment trends.

Hennes said the decline has been fairly consistent over a course of many weeks.

“The part that is most concerning to me is the students who are disenrolling at the elementary level,” he commented. “You sometimes see movement among older students, but you generally don’t see a lot of movement in your elementary and junior high students in the spring. You are so close to the end of the year that most people tend to stay put and finish it out.”

He fears the summer months could bring an exodus of even more students.

“What I am worried about are the people who will finish out the school year, but then move over the course of the summer,” said Hennes, who believes the housing market and economy are primarily responsible for the declining enrollment.

The declining enrollment and projected funding cuts for next year were both factors in the district’s plans to reduce staffing for next year.

The combination of the two creates a “perfect storm” which the district must weather, Hennes reflected.

“I am seeing this overall decline within the district, which is why we took the step of recommending the reductions in staff, and we will have to make more adjustments next year if the enrollment continues to fall,” he explained. “You hope that the enrollment numbers in the fall are what you expected them to be. If not, you have to revise your budget because you can’t reduce staffing at that point.”

Time will tell if the district has entered an extended period of declining enrollment.

“I think the potential is there,” Hennes commented. “We are seeing a lot of those symptoms.”

Superintendent Rick Fauss shared those concerns.

“A surprisingly high number of students are moving out of the area,” he said. “I think it has a lot to do with the housing problems were are having here.”

On an encouraging note, Fauss said, kindergarten registration numbers were solid at Hunt and Von Renner schools. Kindergarten registration at Bonita was light, he said, but that is not uncommon at the Crows Landing school.