There’s good news and not-quite-as-good news for local almond growers — but mostly good.

First, the good: The state’s almond production forecast is 2.8 billion meat pounds, which is 13 percent higher than last year’s crop of 2.47 billion pounds — a forecast based on nearly 1.4 million bearing acres.

The estimates were publicized in the 2024 California Almond Objective Measurement Report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS).

The not-quite-as-good news? The forecast of 2.8 billion meat pounds is down seven percent from May’s subjective forecast.

“The objective measurement is in line with what the industry expected and a drop from the subjective estimate,”  said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. 

“California almonds shipped at least 212 million pounds each of the first 10 months of this crop-year and averaged 230 million pounds a month. Never before has the industry shipped even 200 million pounds 10 months in a row in the same crop year.”

Turner expects the supply to be similar to what was available in the past crop year.

“The actual supply of California almonds available for the market is the combination of crop size and carryout from the previous year,” Turner said. “We expect only minor changes, if any, to the supply for market this next crop year because the forecasted increase in crop size will mostly be offset by the smaller carryout. Clearly, global demand is strong and consistent. We will continue to work hard to meet growing demand.”

Production for the Nonpareil variety, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of California’s entire almond output, is forecast at 1.10 billion meat pounds, 17 percent above last year’s total.

The 2024 almond crop experienced mostly favorable weather during the bloom period.

Bee hours were reported to be significantly higher than last year. Wet and warm weather in April increased pest and disease pressure, but dry conditions and mild temperatures in May helped the developing crop. Multiple heat waves during June and July required growers to increase irrigation on their orchards. The almond harvest is expected to be on schedule.

The average nut set per tree is 4,072, an increase of 3 percent from the previous year. The Nonpareil average nut set is 4,137, also a 3 percent jump over 2023.

The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.61 grams, down 4 percent from the 2023 average weight. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.64 grams, down 3 percent from the 2023 average weight. 

The forecast is the second of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. The first was report an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 19 to May 5 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different sized operations. This latest report, released last week, is be based on actual almond counts in approximately 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.