The race between incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Democratic challenger Adam Gray for the 13th District congressional seat is once again going down to the wire.
As of late Tuesday night, Duarte led the former five-term Assemblymember by a mere 227 votes — 100,885 to 100,658. Two years ago, when Duarte won the seat by just 564 votes, the race for the 13th was the second-closest House race in the nation.
“We’ll keep curing ballots on both sides,” said Duarte from his residence in the nation’s capital. “This race is so close that it may end up going to a recount. We just have to stay patient until every vote is counted.”
The 13th district includes all of Merced County and pieces of Stanislaus, San Joaquin, Madera and Fresno counties.
According to Gray’s camp, about nearly 6,000 ballots from the 13th district remain to be counted, with more than 85 percent of those coming from Stanislaus, Merced and San Joaquin counties, where Gray is currently running ahead.
“Based on the type of ballots (remaining), we feel good about where we stand and our path to victory,” said Gray. “This was always going to be a close race. It was decided by hundreds of votes in 2022 and I expect a similar story this year.”
In Stanislaus County, which is Duarte’s home turf, Gray has nearly a 3,800-vote lead (53.3% to 46.7%). In Merced County, which is Gray’s home county, the race is a little closer (51.3 to 48.7) with Gray ahead by 2,000 votes. In San Joaquin County, though Gray leads by just 1,000 votes, it represents his largest percentage (53.6 to 46.4).
Conversely, Duarte is dominating Madera County by 4,700 votes (57% to 43%) and Fresno County by nearly 2,400 votes (56.2% to 43.8%).
Two years ago, in an off-year election, about 135,000 ballots were cast in the district. This year, more than 200,000 ballots have been accounted for.
This race was labeled a toss-up for most of the 2024 by reputable polling outlets, with a few giving Gray a slight edge in the final weeks of the campaign. For a time, that appeared to be a major miscalculation with Duarte leading by more than 3,000 votes at times. But the lead has continued to dwindle and now Gray is closer than he was two years ago, when Duarte’s victory contributed to the Republicans’ slim House majority. Since then, the 13th has been a target by both parties, which contributed millions to bolster their candidate.
As it stands, the GOP controls 218 House seats, while the Democrats have secured 212. Five seats, including the 13th, remain undecided.
“We’ve got the lead at this point,” said Duarte. “We just have to wait until we’re sure.”
