San Joaquin Valley residents already bracing for possible federal cuts to Medicaid could be hit with a one-two punch as Congressional Republicans plan to slash another $230 billion, much, or all, of which could come from the federal food stamps program. 

SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which is called CalFresh in California helps low-income residents buy groceries. House Republicans approved a budget that strips $230 billion over the next decade from the Agriculture Committee, which oversees the SNAP program. 

As with the proposed cuts to Medicaid, which could total up to $880 billion, the SNAP cuts would offset extensions to tax cuts enacted under the first Trump administration in 2017, which largely went to corporations and the top 5% of earners.

Cuts to SNAP, which Californians access using EBT cards, would have a significant impact in the San Joaquin Valley because the region has the highest percentage of households enrolled in the program across the state, according to U.S. Census data. The eight-county region is also home to the state’s highest percentage of people on Medicaid, which provides health coverage to low-income residents and is called Medi-Cal in state.

“These programs are lifelines for millions of families, and reducing them would increase hardship, deepen economic and racial inequities, and hurt local businesses and the economy,” said Senior Policy Analyst Adriana Ramos-Yamamoto, with the nonprofit California Budget & Policy Center. “In places like the Central Valley, where enrollment in both Medicaid and SNAP are high, many would lose access to essential health care services and face greater risk of hunger. These cuts would push more people into poverty at a time when the cost of living is already out of reach for so many.”

The San Joaquin Valley’s high SNAP usage rate ranges from 14% of households in Stanislaus County to 23% of households in Tulare County. An analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities found that in 2024 SNAP recipients in California received an average of $189 a month, which must be spent on food and other groceries. 

While lawmakers have not released final proposals for how cuts will be made, Ramos-Yamamoto said one plan includes a roughly 20% reduction in SNAP benefits. That would mean a household receiving $200 a month in CalFresh benefits would see a $40 drop in its EBT credits. 

Other cost-cutting options include requiring states to pay for a portion of the program, something the federal government has never required. House Republicans are also considering expanding existing work requirements for SNAP recipients. 

“Cuts to SNAP would overwhelmingly harm Californians of color, who are more likely to participate in the program, widening the inequities in our state,” said Monica Saucedo, a senior policy fellow at the Budget Center. “SNAP is the state’s most powerful tool to fight hunger, however, it also helps fight poverty, generates local economic activity, and supports farming communities.”

Indeed those receiving benefits would not be the only Valley residents to feel the effects of cuts to the program. 

Late last month the nonprofit public affairs organization The Commonwealth Fund and George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health issued a report projecting the economic impacts in each state – calculating potential jobs and revenue lost – from the proposed $1.1 trillion in combined SNAP and Medicaid cuts. 

The study found that California would feel the heaviest impact of all the states, with a potential in the next year to lose 139,600 jobs and for gross domestic product (GDP, or overall economic output) to shrink by some $17 billion. 

The SNAP program provides significant revenue to the state’s grocery stores, food producers and manufacturers. California has some 24,000 authorized retailers, including supermarkets, convenience stores and specialty markets, who accept SNAP. 

Milken Institute Director of the Center for Health Policy Research Leighton Ku, the report’s lead author, said the San Joaquin Valley could be particularly vulnerable to the “domino effect” that could be triggered by SNAP cuts. 

Not only could the 1.3 million Valley households that rely on Calfresh from Stockton to Bakersfield  receive less aid, the grocery stores where those families shop could see a decline in revenue. In turn, those stores might purchase less from producers and manufacturers. As a result,  producers and manufacturers might reduce production and have to lay off staff.  

“At the same time when food is increasingly unaffordable, suddenly your benefits are going down by about 20%,” Ku said. “That means you go a little hungrier, or you are less able to pay your rent that month, or you have to cut back on something else. It's a vicious cycle, right? It's a domino effect. And again, these things have repercussions. If the food stores, the food producers and the agriculture firms, if they have to cut back, they can't employ as many people, and so that means there are more poor people who therefore, in principle, would get SNAP benefits.”

— Marijke Rowland is the senior health equity reporter for The Intersection, a project of the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative. Reach Rowland at marijke@cvlocaljournalism.org.